NFC Projected Carries
Figuring out NFL backfields these days isn't easy. Nearly everyone is taking a series off, coming out on third-down, getting their diapers changed during two-minute drills. I thought these guys were supposed to be real men?
That said, running backs are still at the core of fantasy football. While the number of backs that get at least 300 carries has fallen off precipitously over the last two seasons, elite wide receiver production (100 catches or 1,200 receiving yards) isn't rising at all and the number of 1,200-yard rushers has only dropped slightly.
That's why knowing which running backs have a chance to get those high workloads is even more important now than ever. Here's a projection of how many carries each team's running backs will have this season. The "Average Rushes/Year" number is based on carries by running backs only while the coach was with his current team. We'll hit the AFC on Thursday:
Arizona Cardinals:
Coach: Ken Whisenhunt; Average Rushes/Year: 336
Projected 2009 Carries: 355
The pass-happy Cardinals gave their running backs just 307 carries last season, by far the least in the league. That was in part because both Edgerrin James (3.9 yards per carry) and Tim Hightower (2.8 yards per carry) were ineffective. With first-round pick Beanie Wells in the fold, we expect Whisenhunt to call a few more runs.
Chris Wells: 200
Tim Hightower: 140
Jason Wright: 15
Wells' first training camp was slowed badly by an ankle injury, but he looked more than ready in his first preseason game. Hightower will likely be the starter in name only as Wells is far and away the better back. A quick start by Wells could lead to even more than the 200 carries we project.
Atlanta Falcons:
Coach: Mike Smith; Average Rushes/Year: 491
Projected 2009 Carries: 445
Adding Tony Gonzalez gives offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey an additional toy to play with in the passing game. Matt Ryan has a year of development under his belt and will be trusted to throw more. Regardless, this is a running team and Mularkey recently said "we're not going to change a lot."
Michael Turner: 315
Jerious Norwood: 110
Jason Snelling: 10
Thomas Brown: 10
Every offseason, the Falcons say they're going to give Norwood more carries. Considering Turner is coming off a 376 carry campaign, we're slightly more inclined to believe them this year. Still, when push comes to shove and the Falcons are in a close game, Turner is going to get the ball. He could easily surpass our cautious prediction of 315 carries.
Carolina Panthers:
Coach: John Fox; Average Rushes/Year: 423
Projected 2009 Carries: 430
Fox said the Panthers would be a power running team last year and they were. Carolina led the league in rushing touchdowns and were third in yards per attempt. Not much will change with a very thin receiving corps and DeAngelo Williams now achieving premier back status.
DeAngelo Williams: 230
Jonathan Stewart: 177
Mike Goodson: 40
We anticipated this split would be more even, but Stewart has practiced exactly zero times this preseason. He's so talented that if he can ever shake this Achilles problem he'll immediately be handed carries. But for now we're thinking Goodson will pick up Stewart's slack before Williams pushes more than 250 carries.
Chicago Bears:
Coach: Lovie Smith; Average Rushes/Year: 416
Projected 2009 Carries: 415
Matt Forte should be able to improve on his rookie year's 3.9 yards per carry with Jay Cutler under center instead of Kyle Orton. So even though the passing game will be improved, we think the Bears will run the ball slightly more than the 397 times they did last season.
Matt Forte: 320
Kevin Jones: 70
Garrett Wolfe: 15
Adrian Peterson: 10
Forte is such a good receiver that he never needs to come off the field. Jones is another year removed from his ACL surgery and was the talk of early training camp, making Peterson and Wolfe non-factors. Jones will steal some carries here and there from Forte.
Dallas Cowboys:
Coach: Wade Phillips; Average Rushes/Year: 374.5
Projected 2009 Carries: 385
Terrell Owens is gone, opening the door for more rushing attempts without complaining from receivers. But this is a passing team and we don't see them changing too much this year despite having three quality backs.
Marion Barber: 215
Felix Jones: 110
Tashard Choice: 60
Barber failed in his first chance as a full-time back so his "closer" role is back. That means less carries but probably more touchdowns, similar to what he did in 2006 and 2007. Felix Jones has everyone's jaws on the floor and the Cowboys will get him the ball as much as they can, even if it's not on handoffs.
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Detroit Lions
Coach: Jim Schwartz; Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2009 Carries: 370
Schwartz is a disciple of Jeff Fisher so you know he isn't opposed to running the ball. But the key man is new offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, who is a much better offensive coordinator than he is a head coach. Linehan isn't known for being pass-heavy or run-heavy, but will get the most out of his talent.
Kevin Smith: 285
Maurice Morris: 85
Smith won't back down from a huge workload. He carried the ball 450 times for Central Florida in 2007 and played angry throughout last year's nightmare. If the Lions can buck expectations and get ahead in some games, Smith could very well push the 300 carries.
Green Bay Packers
Coach: Mike McCarthy; Average Rushes/Year: 368
Projected 2009 Carries: 400
Aaron Rodgers' development is really something to watch. If he plays anything close to what he has done in the preseason, the Packers will be nursing leads in a lot of games this season.
Ryan Grant: 280
DeShawn Wynn: 70
Brandon Jackson: 50
Despite looking mediocre at best, Grant got the call 312 times last season. The Packers don't seem to think he's too mediocre. Brandon Jackson's ankle injury has him looking unlikely to make an impact at least early in the season. Keep an eye on DeShawn Wynn if he can hold off Tyrell Sutton.
Minnesota Vikings
Coach: Brad Childress; Average Rushes/Year: 428
Projected 2009 Carries: 443
Childress came from the pass-first Eagles, but he knows where his bread is buttered in Minnesota. Even with Brett Favre at quarterback, we expect Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor to get more handoffs than any other tandem in the league.
Adrian Peterson: 330
Chester Taylor: 100
Albert Young: 13
Peterson had 363 carries last season. If he had seven more would we be talking about downgrading him because of the "Curse of 370?" Certainly not. Taylor had 101 carries last season and that shouldn't change.
New Orleans Saints
Coach: Sean Payton; Average Rushes/Year: 378.3
Projected 2009 Carries: 368
Everyone knows the Saints throw the ball to win and nothing will change this year. All the weapons are in place again.
Pierre Thomas: 195
Reggie Bush: 138
Mike Bell: 35
Bell has played so well in camp and in exhibition games that there's been talk he'll cut into Thomas' workload. We don't see Thomas as a guy that can carry the ball more than 200 times in a season. Bush is a 10-carry per game back at this point.
New York Giants
Coach: Tom Coughlin; Average Rushes/Year: 432
Projected 2009 Carries: 415
The Giants' 5.0 yards per carry mark last season led the NFL. Losing Derrick Ward stings but this is still a team that is built around the run.
Brandon Jacobs: 225
Ahmad Bradshaw: 140
Danny Ware: 50
Jacobs' 219 carries last year were a career high. Even without Ward, it's unlikely he'll be asked to do more. Bradshaw will be this year's Ward and has looked really impressive in preseason. Ware has two carries in seven career games but has still managed to generate some buzz with Andre Brown out for the year.
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Philadelphia Eagles
Coach: Andy Reid; Average Rushes/Year: 343.4
Projected Carries: 373
For Reid, third-and-one is a passing down. If you play running back in Philadelphia, you have to be able to pass protect and catch the ball out of the backfield. No matter how much the fans and media pressure Reid to run more, nothing will change this year.
Brian Westbrook: 200
LeSean McCoy: 123
Lorenzo Booker: 25
Leonard Weaver: 25
Westbrook won't practice all season and will be a game-time decision more than once. That's a fact. Westbrook has carried the ball at least 233 times in each of the last three seasons. McCoy has impressed all observers but our projection is based largely on a Westbrook injury. McCoy won't get 123 carries if Westbrook toughs out 15 games.
San Francisco 49ers
Coach: Mike Singletary; Average Rushes/Year: N/A (took over eight games into last season)
Projected 2009 carries: 405
Singletary had his interim tag removed in the offseason, while Mike Martz was told to take a hike. That's good news for Frank Gore, as the Niners ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in rushing attempts, yards and touchdowns last season. Singletary is a tough guy and tells anyone who will listen how tough he is. That means a lot more runs this year.
Frank Gore: 280
Glen Coffee: 90
Kory Sheets: 20
Michael Robinson: 10
Coffee has been one of the most productive backs in the league this preseason, but don't get too excited. He's nothing more than a handcuff pick for Gore owners. By all accounts, Gore is having the camp of his career and looks primed for a monster workload. He could push for 300 carries if Shaun Hill can manage some games well.
Seattle Seahawks
Coach: Jim Mora Jr.; Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2009 carries: 355
Mora worked with Mike Holmgren in Seattle since 2007, but this version of the Seahawks is much different. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and have a less than optimal running back situation.
Julius Jones: 195
Edgerrin James: 130
Justin Forsett: 30
Jones should have taken the hint when Edge was signed; the Seahawks don't want him carrying the ball 200 times this season. He's just not productive enough. James still has some juice in his legs and can get more than what's blocked. The problem is not much will be blocked.
St. Louis Rams
Coach: Steve Spagnuolo; Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2009 carries: 390
Spagnuolo hired Pat Shurmur, his buddy from their time together with the Eagles, to be his offensive coordinator. As an Andy Reid disciple, Shurmur comes in with a reputation of a pass-happy West Coast offense.
Steven Jackson: 315
Samkon Gado: 50
Kenneth Darby: 25
Jackson really only had one year (2006) where he was a true workhorse. For his career, he has averaged just 17.7 carries/game (that's per game played to take into account all his injuries). He's so good out of the backfield as a receiver that Shurmur might just get him 90 catches. Gado has played his way into the favorite to be the backup, while Darby is fighting with Antonio Pittman for a roster spot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coach: Raheem Morris; Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2009 carries: 407
Morris wants his running game to be like the Giants' three-headed monster of the last couple years, meaning guys alternating series and using three backs. His offensive coordinator, Jeff Jagodzinski, comes from Boston College with a reputation for pounding the ball a ton with a committee.
Derrick Ward: 185
Earnest Graham: 145
Carnell Williams: 65
Clifton Smith: 12
It's hard to see Morris sticking to his 2-2-1 plan, where Ward gets two series, Graham gets two series and Cadillac gets one. But just the fact that he has this scheme in mind is scary.
Washington Redskins
Coach: Jim Zorn; Average Rushes/Year: 425
Projected 2009 carries: 420
It's difficult to predict how effective the Redskins will be throwing the ball this year. One game Jason Campbell looks like a Pro Bowler and the next he looks like a career backup. So even though Zorn was supposed to be a quarterback guru, the running game will once again have to be the focal point.
Clinton Portis: 305
Ladell Betts: 105
Rock Cartwright: 10
Last year, Portis had 187 carries in the first eight games of the season, or 23.4 per game, before disappearing down the stretch. That can't happen again, so the Redskins have announced Betts will be the third-down and two-minute drill back. Portis says he is fine with it, even though he's clashed with Zorn in the past. We'll see. Perhaps Portis knows he's on the downside of his career and carrying the ball 342 times again this year is a bad idea.
Figuring out NFL backfields these days isn't easy. Nearly everyone is taking a series off, coming out on third-down, getting their diapers changed during two-minute drills. I thought these guys were supposed to be real men?
That said, running backs are still at the core of fantasy football. While the number of backs that get at least 300 carries has fallen off precipitously over the last two seasons, elite wide receiver production (100 catches or 1,200 receiving yards) isn't rising at all and the number of 1,200-yard rushers has only dropped slightly.
That's why knowing which running backs have a chance to get those high workloads is even more important now than ever. Here's a projection of how many carries each team's running backs will have this season. The "Average Rushes/Year" number is based on carries by running backs only while the coach was with his current team. We'll hit the AFC on Thursday:
Arizona Cardinals:
Coach: Ken Whisenhunt; Average Rushes/Year: 336
Projected 2009 Carries: 355
The pass-happy Cardinals gave their running backs just 307 carries last season, by far the least in the league. That was in part because both Edgerrin James (3.9 yards per carry) and Tim Hightower (2.8 yards per carry) were ineffective. With first-round pick Beanie Wells in the fold, we expect Whisenhunt to call a few more runs.
Chris Wells: 200
Tim Hightower: 140
Jason Wright: 15
Wells' first training camp was slowed badly by an ankle injury, but he looked more than ready in his first preseason game. Hightower will likely be the starter in name only as Wells is far and away the better back. A quick start by Wells could lead to even more than the 200 carries we project.
Atlanta Falcons:
Coach: Mike Smith; Average Rushes/Year: 491
Projected 2009 Carries: 445
Adding Tony Gonzalez gives offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey an additional toy to play with in the passing game. Matt Ryan has a year of development under his belt and will be trusted to throw more. Regardless, this is a running team and Mularkey recently said "we're not going to change a lot."
Michael Turner: 315
Jerious Norwood: 110
Jason Snelling: 10
Thomas Brown: 10
Every offseason, the Falcons say they're going to give Norwood more carries. Considering Turner is coming off a 376 carry campaign, we're slightly more inclined to believe them this year. Still, when push comes to shove and the Falcons are in a close game, Turner is going to get the ball. He could easily surpass our cautious prediction of 315 carries.
Carolina Panthers:
Coach: John Fox; Average Rushes/Year: 423
Projected 2009 Carries: 430
Fox said the Panthers would be a power running team last year and they were. Carolina led the league in rushing touchdowns and were third in yards per attempt. Not much will change with a very thin receiving corps and DeAngelo Williams now achieving premier back status.
DeAngelo Williams: 230
Jonathan Stewart: 177
Mike Goodson: 40
We anticipated this split would be more even, but Stewart has practiced exactly zero times this preseason. He's so talented that if he can ever shake this Achilles problem he'll immediately be handed carries. But for now we're thinking Goodson will pick up Stewart's slack before Williams pushes more than 250 carries.
Chicago Bears:
Coach: Lovie Smith; Average Rushes/Year: 416
Projected 2009 Carries: 415
Matt Forte should be able to improve on his rookie year's 3.9 yards per carry with Jay Cutler under center instead of Kyle Orton. So even though the passing game will be improved, we think the Bears will run the ball slightly more than the 397 times they did last season.
Matt Forte: 320
Kevin Jones: 70
Garrett Wolfe: 15
Adrian Peterson: 10
Forte is such a good receiver that he never needs to come off the field. Jones is another year removed from his ACL surgery and was the talk of early training camp, making Peterson and Wolfe non-factors. Jones will steal some carries here and there from Forte.
Dallas Cowboys:
Coach: Wade Phillips; Average Rushes/Year: 374.5
Projected 2009 Carries: 385
Terrell Owens is gone, opening the door for more rushing attempts without complaining from receivers. But this is a passing team and we don't see them changing too much this year despite having three quality backs.
Marion Barber: 215
Felix Jones: 110
Tashard Choice: 60
Barber failed in his first chance as a full-time back so his "closer" role is back. That means less carries but probably more touchdowns, similar to what he did in 2006 and 2007. Felix Jones has everyone's jaws on the floor and the Cowboys will get him the ball as much as they can, even if it's not on handoffs.
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Detroit Lions
Coach: Jim Schwartz; Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2009 Carries: 370
Schwartz is a disciple of Jeff Fisher so you know he isn't opposed to running the ball. But the key man is new offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, who is a much better offensive coordinator than he is a head coach. Linehan isn't known for being pass-heavy or run-heavy, but will get the most out of his talent.
Kevin Smith: 285
Maurice Morris: 85
Smith won't back down from a huge workload. He carried the ball 450 times for Central Florida in 2007 and played angry throughout last year's nightmare. If the Lions can buck expectations and get ahead in some games, Smith could very well push the 300 carries.
Green Bay Packers
Coach: Mike McCarthy; Average Rushes/Year: 368
Projected 2009 Carries: 400
Aaron Rodgers' development is really something to watch. If he plays anything close to what he has done in the preseason, the Packers will be nursing leads in a lot of games this season.
Ryan Grant: 280
DeShawn Wynn: 70
Brandon Jackson: 50
Despite looking mediocre at best, Grant got the call 312 times last season. The Packers don't seem to think he's too mediocre. Brandon Jackson's ankle injury has him looking unlikely to make an impact at least early in the season. Keep an eye on DeShawn Wynn if he can hold off Tyrell Sutton.
Minnesota Vikings
Coach: Brad Childress; Average Rushes/Year: 428
Projected 2009 Carries: 443
Childress came from the pass-first Eagles, but he knows where his bread is buttered in Minnesota. Even with Brett Favre at quarterback, we expect Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor to get more handoffs than any other tandem in the league.
Adrian Peterson: 330
Chester Taylor: 100
Albert Young: 13
Peterson had 363 carries last season. If he had seven more would we be talking about downgrading him because of the "Curse of 370?" Certainly not. Taylor had 101 carries last season and that shouldn't change.
New Orleans Saints
Coach: Sean Payton; Average Rushes/Year: 378.3
Projected 2009 Carries: 368
Everyone knows the Saints throw the ball to win and nothing will change this year. All the weapons are in place again.
Pierre Thomas: 195
Reggie Bush: 138
Mike Bell: 35
Bell has played so well in camp and in exhibition games that there's been talk he'll cut into Thomas' workload. We don't see Thomas as a guy that can carry the ball more than 200 times in a season. Bush is a 10-carry per game back at this point.
New York Giants
Coach: Tom Coughlin; Average Rushes/Year: 432
Projected 2009 Carries: 415
The Giants' 5.0 yards per carry mark last season led the NFL. Losing Derrick Ward stings but this is still a team that is built around the run.
Brandon Jacobs: 225
Ahmad Bradshaw: 140
Danny Ware: 50
Jacobs' 219 carries last year were a career high. Even without Ward, it's unlikely he'll be asked to do more. Bradshaw will be this year's Ward and has looked really impressive in preseason. Ware has two carries in seven career games but has still managed to generate some buzz with Andre Brown out for the year.
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Philadelphia Eagles
Coach: Andy Reid; Average Rushes/Year: 343.4
Projected Carries: 373
For Reid, third-and-one is a passing down. If you play running back in Philadelphia, you have to be able to pass protect and catch the ball out of the backfield. No matter how much the fans and media pressure Reid to run more, nothing will change this year.
Brian Westbrook: 200
LeSean McCoy: 123
Lorenzo Booker: 25
Leonard Weaver: 25
Westbrook won't practice all season and will be a game-time decision more than once. That's a fact. Westbrook has carried the ball at least 233 times in each of the last three seasons. McCoy has impressed all observers but our projection is based largely on a Westbrook injury. McCoy won't get 123 carries if Westbrook toughs out 15 games.
San Francisco 49ers
Coach: Mike Singletary; Average Rushes/Year: N/A (took over eight games into last season)
Projected 2009 carries: 405
Singletary had his interim tag removed in the offseason, while Mike Martz was told to take a hike. That's good news for Frank Gore, as the Niners ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in rushing attempts, yards and touchdowns last season. Singletary is a tough guy and tells anyone who will listen how tough he is. That means a lot more runs this year.
Frank Gore: 280
Glen Coffee: 90
Kory Sheets: 20
Michael Robinson: 10
Coffee has been one of the most productive backs in the league this preseason, but don't get too excited. He's nothing more than a handcuff pick for Gore owners. By all accounts, Gore is having the camp of his career and looks primed for a monster workload. He could push for 300 carries if Shaun Hill can manage some games well.
Seattle Seahawks
Coach: Jim Mora Jr.; Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2009 carries: 355
Mora worked with Mike Holmgren in Seattle since 2007, but this version of the Seahawks is much different. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and have a less than optimal running back situation.
Julius Jones: 195
Edgerrin James: 130
Justin Forsett: 30
Jones should have taken the hint when Edge was signed; the Seahawks don't want him carrying the ball 200 times this season. He's just not productive enough. James still has some juice in his legs and can get more than what's blocked. The problem is not much will be blocked.
St. Louis Rams
Coach: Steve Spagnuolo; Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2009 carries: 390
Spagnuolo hired Pat Shurmur, his buddy from their time together with the Eagles, to be his offensive coordinator. As an Andy Reid disciple, Shurmur comes in with a reputation of a pass-happy West Coast offense.
Steven Jackson: 315
Samkon Gado: 50
Kenneth Darby: 25
Jackson really only had one year (2006) where he was a true workhorse. For his career, he has averaged just 17.7 carries/game (that's per game played to take into account all his injuries). He's so good out of the backfield as a receiver that Shurmur might just get him 90 catches. Gado has played his way into the favorite to be the backup, while Darby is fighting with Antonio Pittman for a roster spot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coach: Raheem Morris; Average Rushes/Year: N/A
Projected 2009 carries: 407
Morris wants his running game to be like the Giants' three-headed monster of the last couple years, meaning guys alternating series and using three backs. His offensive coordinator, Jeff Jagodzinski, comes from Boston College with a reputation for pounding the ball a ton with a committee.
Derrick Ward: 185
Earnest Graham: 145
Carnell Williams: 65
Clifton Smith: 12
It's hard to see Morris sticking to his 2-2-1 plan, where Ward gets two series, Graham gets two series and Cadillac gets one. But just the fact that he has this scheme in mind is scary.
Washington Redskins
Coach: Jim Zorn; Average Rushes/Year: 425
Projected 2009 carries: 420
It's difficult to predict how effective the Redskins will be throwing the ball this year. One game Jason Campbell looks like a Pro Bowler and the next he looks like a career backup. So even though Zorn was supposed to be a quarterback guru, the running game will once again have to be the focal point.
Clinton Portis: 305
Ladell Betts: 105
Rock Cartwright: 10
Last year, Portis had 187 carries in the first eight games of the season, or 23.4 per game, before disappearing down the stretch. That can't happen again, so the Redskins have announced Betts will be the third-down and two-minute drill back. Portis says he is fine with it, even though he's clashed with Zorn in the past. We'll see. Perhaps Portis knows he's on the downside of his career and carrying the ball 342 times again this year is a bad idea.
